PROPHECY FAIL . . . At the Motley Fool, "Histories of Things That Never Happened," by Morgan House--
In a world of breathless predictions, the most valuable tool might be Google Archive, which allows you to go back in time and see how old prophecies fared. We don't do this enough. The ultimate value of any forecast isn't whether it sounded nice. It's whether it eventually becomes correct. Spend some time in Google Archive, and you can't help but notice that the vast majority of forecasts about the economy or the stock market are utterly wrong in hindsight.
True. The idea applies not only to investing, but to politics. Predictions about the future make up about 95% of what passes for "news" on cable TV. Not what happened, but what might happen. Such predictions are utterly pointless, even moreso when you realize that the people doing the predicting often have an undisclosed financial interest in a particular outcome.
Only on ESPN can I stomach predictions . . .